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Durability analysis of the highly effective mRNA-1273 vaccine against COVID-19

May 20 2022

COVID-19 vaccines are effective, but breakthrough infections have been increasingly reported. We conducted a test-negative case-control study to assess the durability of protection against symptomatic infection after vaccination with mRNA-1273. We fit conditional logistic regression (CLR) models stratified on residential county and calendar date of SARS-CoV-2 PCR testing to assess the association between the time elapsed since vaccination and the odds of symptomatic infection, adjusted for several covariates. There were 2364 symptomatic individuals who had a positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR test after full vaccination with mRNA-1273 (“cases”) and 12949 symptomatic individuals who contributed 15087 negative tests after full vaccination (“controls”). The odds of symptomatic infection were significantly higher 250 days after full vaccination compared to the date of full vaccination (Odds Ratio [OR]: 2.47, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.19–5.13). The odds of non-COVID-19 associated hospitalization and non-COVID-19 pneumonia (negative control outcomes) remained relatively stable over the same time interval (Day 250 ORNon-COVID Hospitalization: 0.68, 95% CI: 0.47–1.0; Day 250 ORNon-COVID Pneumonia: 1.11, 95% CI: 0.24–5.2). The odds of symptomatic infection remained significantly lower almost 300 days after the first mRNA-1273 dose as compared to 4 days after the first dose, when immune protection approximates the unvaccinated state (OR: 0.26, 95% CI: 0.17–0.39). Low rates of COVID-19 associated hospitalization or death in this cohort precluded analyses of these severe outcomes. In summary, mRNA-1273 robustly protected against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection at least eight months after full vaccination, but the degree of protection waned over this time period.


Arjun Puranik, Patrick J Lenehan, John C O'Horo, Colin Pawlowski, Abinash Virk, Melanie D Swift, Walter Kremers, A J Venkatakrishnan, Doug W Challener, Laura Breeher, Joel E Gordon, Holly L Geyer, Leigh Lewis Speicher, Venky Soundararajan, Andrew D Badley

nference, Cambridge, MA 02142, USA Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN 55905, USA

Mayo Clinic


Correspondence to:

Venky Soundararajan (venky@nference.net) Andrew D Badley (Badley.Andrew@mayo.edu)

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